In Q3, a study by Future Electronics showed, among other unprecedented levels of shortage, LV MOSFETs at an astonishing  39-52 weeks lead-time from Infineon and Fairchild, at 36-52 weeks from Nexperia, at 38-42 weeks from ST and at 26-40 weeks from Diodes.

Bluetooth modules were on 22-26 weeks from Murata, 18-20 weeks from Microchip, 16-18 weeks from Panasonic and 12-16 weeks from ST.

Even SRAM was on 18-20 weeks from Renesas and PC DRAM on 4-6 weeks from Kingston and 4-8 weeks from Alliance.

“There’s massive and far-reaching under-investment in the industry” says Future Horizons CEO Malcolm Penn, (pictured), “no one makes speculative capacity investments any more; everyone waits until demand is clear; the lead-time for new capacity is (and always was) one year; QED a recipe for delinquency and disaster.”

There’s also talk that the Trump tariffs and threat of gigher tariffs are pushing people to over-order to avoid price hikes.

Reputed low-ish  distributor inventory may also contribute to moves to replenish stocks and keeping lead-times high.

So, despite  weakening end demand, there are several reasons why a decline in lead-times may not be significant or soon.